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Special Reports

Why are Gold and Bitcoin hitting new records together? – Special Report

Posted on March 12, 2024 at 3:34 pm GMT

Gold and Bitcoin cruise to new all-time highs simultaneously However, there are different drivers behind these rallies Overall, both assets might have more scope to run higher Gold and bitcoin go through the roof It’s pretty rare to see gold and bitcoin setting new record highs at the same time. Gold is considered the ultimate safe haven asset, while bitcoin is often viewed as one of the riskiest and most speculative plays. When both of them stage an incredible rally, [..]

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Dissecting the ECB Monetary policy decisions communiqué – Special Report

Posted on March 5, 2024 at 3:07 pm GMT

The monetary policy decisions statement is released at 13:15 GMT President Lagarde et al could signal a policy shift in this communiqué The ECB staff projections could also hold the key to a rate cut soon The scheduled press conference takes place 30 minutes later Complementing the detailed ECB preview, this report focuses on the first communication made by the European Central Bank after the completion of each rate setting meeting. A press statement called “Monetary policy decisions” is released at [..]

Are there more AI growth opportunities to be priced into the markets? – Special Report

Posted on February 28, 2024 at 12:49 pm GMT

Nvidia skyrockets and drives the S&P 500 to new records Demand for chips continues to surge, AI enters consumers’ life There maybe more AI growth opportunities to be priced in But downside risks on high valuations and geopolitics do exist Nvidia beats already optimistic estimates Just last week, the investor favorite Nvidia beat out Amazon and Alphabet to take the third place as the most valuable company in the US by market capitalization, and although the chipmaker’s stock pulled back [..]

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Performance in past “Fed pause” intervals supports the current S&P 500 rally – Special Report

Posted on February 28, 2024 at 10:55 am GMT

A performance comparison of key assets in the previous Fed pause periods The S&P 500 index could go higher if history repeats itself The US 10-year yield is expected to drop when the Fed decides to signal rate cuts A special report was published last year analysing the performance of key market assets during the three occasions since 2000 – in 2000-01, 2006-07 and 2018-19 respectively – when the Fed paused after a rate hiking cycle. The end product was [..]

German economic troubles could keep the euro heavy – Special Report

Posted on February 23, 2024 at 12:48 pm GMT

Eurozone economy narrowly avoided a recession last year Yet situation could get worse as Germany tightens spending Can the euro ignore deteriorating economic fundamentals?      No recession, but no growth either The euro area miraculously dodged a recession last year, even despite inflation eating into people’s real incomes and high interest rates dampening demand. Most of the heavy lifting was done by Spain, which grew at a solid pace, offsetting a contraction in Germany.   Alas, overall economic growth was [..]

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What you need to know about the troubled commercial real estate debt – Special report

Posted on February 21, 2024 at 1:50 pm GMT

Commercial real estate loans cause anxiety amid high interest rates Bank risks remain low but cannot be ignored    It’s not that quiet on the bank front The US economy has proved surprisingly resilient to the fastest increase in interest rates in forty years. Six months after the latest rate hike, the economy keeps growing at a healthy pace, defying recession risks, which some of its peers are already sinking into. This is great news for the US dollar and one [..]

A year in the life of a gold day trader – Special Report

Posted on February 20, 2024 at 8:32 am GMT

A simulation to represent the trading process of a gold trader in 2023 Using a generic trading strategy, the results and the importance of stop losses are examined Central bank meetings and US labour market data were the main causes of sizeable moves Laying the background for this simulation Being a retail trader is an extremely challenging endeavor that tests a person’s abilities on a daily basis. Being aware of the intricacies of trading, the performance of a fictional account [..]

How does a UK recession affect the pound’s fate? – Special Report

Posted on February 19, 2024 at 3:57 pm GMT

BoE maintains more hawkish stance than Fed, ECB Despite recession in H2 2023, rate cut bets were not altered January data suggests the economy may have turned a corner With general elections looming, what’s next for the pound? UK enters recession in H2 2023 Despite dropping its tightening bias at its February gathering, the Bank of England (BoE) maintained a more hawkish stance than the Fed and the ECB, pushing back against interest rate cuts. At the press conference following [..]

Has the Japanese yen missed the recovery train? – Special Report

Posted on February 14, 2024 at 9:39 am GMT

Yen down more than 6% against US dollar this year already Traders less confident Japan will raise rates, as inflation slows For the yen to recover, global economy needs to weaken Yen feels the blues Another year, another meltdown for the Japanese currency. A combination of worsening economic data and some cautious messages by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) have raised doubts about whether a cycle of rate increases lies ahead, inflicting heavy damage on the yen. Specifically, inflation and [..]

What is next for commodity-linked currencies? – Special Report

Posted on February 13, 2024 at 4:24 pm GMT

Risk linked currencies lose correlation to S&P 500 Dollar outperforms all as Fed implied rate path rises BoC abandons tightening bias, but RBA and RBNZ stay hawkish China impacts aussie and kiwi, loonie linked to oil prices Surrendering to the greenback’s dominance Just before the turn of the year, the risk-linked currencies – the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar, and the Canadian dollar – also known as the commodity-linked currencies, have come under selling pressure despite risk appetite remaining [..]

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