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European Session – Sterling jumps on speculation of hike coming sooner; Dollar falls on “dovish” hike

Posted on March 16, 2017 at 4:06 pm GMT

The dollar weakened today as the Federal Reserve disappointed in its forward guidance following the rate hike announcement. The euro initially stood stronger as it was helped by the outcome of Dutch elections, though it didn’t manage to maintain momentum later in the day. Sterling was boosted after the Bank of England meeting, while the day saw the release of numerous economic figures, such as jobless claims out of the US, for traders to digest as well. The dollar index [..]

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Investment Theme – Canadian dollar vulnerable to oil prices and US policies

Posted on March 16, 2017 at 3:59 pm GMT

The Canadian dollar has been range-bound due to various factors pulling it in different directions. The main risks to the loonie are oil prices and US President Donald Trump’s policies. Meanwhile the diverging monetary policies of the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve have weighed on the loonie. Some believe that the outlook for the Canadian dollar is dim mainly due to the widening gap in interest rates in the US and Canada as the Fed embarks on a [..]

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Forex News – Kiwi drops on weak New Zealand GDP data; RBNZ meeting eyed

Posted on March 16, 2017 at 3:31 pm GMT

The New Zealand dollar came under pressure today following weaker-than-expected GDP data out of New Zealand for the fourth quarter of 2016. The kiwi has fallen sharply since the beginning of February after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand signalled that rates could stay at current levels for at least two years. Today’s GDP data reinforces those expectations and also increases the odds that the RBNZ may cut rates even further from the current record low level of 1.75%. New [..]

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Forex News – Australian jobs data casts doubt on RBA’s neutral stance

Posted on March 16, 2017 at 12:23 pm GMT

Australia’s unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked higher in February, casting doubt on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s neutral bias on interest rates. The jobless rate rose to a 13-month high of 5.9% in February, missing estimates that it would stay unchanged at 5.7%. Total employment fell by 6.4k, after rising by 13.5k in January. Expectations were for 16k jobs to be added in February. The underemployment rate, which includes part-time workers seeking full-time jobs in addition to those unemployed, also rose, [..]

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Asian Session – Euro gains on positive outcome of Dutch elections; Dollar extends post-FOMC losses; gold rallies

Posted on March 16, 2017 at 8:22 am GMT

The US dollar remained weak against its major counterparts during the Asian session after making big losses on Wednesday despite the Federal Reserve delivering a rate hike. Following a two-day meeting, the Fed announced an increase in its benchmark interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 0.75% – 1.00%. This was widely expected by the markets so the focus was on the projection for further hikes. It was apparent in the statement issued after the FOMC meeting [..]

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Technical Analysis – AUDUSD bullish; Pair records three-week high

Posted on March 16, 2017 at 8:16 am GMT

AUDUSD recorded a near-three week high during yesterday’s trading and is currently up for the day, though not by much. The RSI indicator is in bullish territory well above the 50 neutral level at 62. Adding to this positive short-term signal is the MACD histogram which is positive and above the red signal line. It should be noted though that the histogram is not far above zero. On the upside, the February 23 four-month high of 0.7740 could provide some [..]

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Forex News – Fed raises rates by 0.25%; Dollar slides on not-so-hawkish outlook

Posted on March 15, 2017 at 8:59 pm GMT

The Federal Reserve in the United States raised borrowing costs for the third time since after the financial crisis today at the end of its two-day monetary policy meeting. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to increase the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 0.75-1.00%. The hike was the first for 2017 and was only flagged by Fed Chair Janet Yellen as recently as two weeks ago. In the announcement statement, the FOMC [..]

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European Session – Stronger sterling despite weakening wage growth; All eyes on Fed guidance

Posted on March 15, 2017 at 3:46 pm GMT

Today saw the release of important jobs data out of the UK as well as inflation and retail sales data out of the US. Meanwhile, market participants will be closely paying attention to today’s FOMC meeting, as well as developments that have to do with the Dutch elections, which are also taking place today. The dollar was weaker against a basket of currencies during today’s European session trading. It seems that traders are awaiting the outcome of the Fed’s meeting [..]

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Forex News – US inflation and retail sales data likely to keep Fed rate hike view

Posted on March 15, 2017 at 2:49 pm GMT

Key US economic data on inflation and retail sales were released today, ahead of the highly anticipated Federal Reserve policy decision. US consumer prices accelerated by the most in five years on a year-on-year basis but rose at a slower pace on a monthly basis. Retail sales rose at a slower pace. Annual inflation rose 2.7% year-on-year in February, in line with economists’ forecasts and up from 2.5% in January. However, monthly CPI only edged up 0.1% month-on-month in February, [..]

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Technical Analysis – NZDJPY holds on to bearish bias below the cloud

Posted on March 15, 2017 at 12:56 pm GMT

NZDJPY has been trading sideways over the past week as it consolidates after declining by around 5% from its January 27 peak of 83.78. The downtrend took the pair below the 50-day moving average and the Ichimoku cloud, significantly weakening the positive medium-term outlook, which is now in danger of turning neutral as prices approach the 200-day moving average. The RSI is trending up, underlining today’s upside momentum. However, it remains below 50 and the overall near-term has been bearish [..]

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