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US CPI, retail sales next to move the dollar – Forex News Preview

Posted on November 13, 2018 at 5:19 pm GMT

As the Fed prepares to deliver its fourth rate hike of the year in December, key data on consumer prices and retail sales coming up might offer some clues on the Bank’s rate normalization path in 2019.  At 1330 GMT on Wednesday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis is expected to show that October’s headline Consumer Price Index bounced up to 2.5% year-on-year after slowing down in the past two months, from 2.9% in July to 2.3% in September. The core equivalent, however, which excludes volatile items is estimated at 2.2% y/y, the same as [..]

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UK inflation and retail sales to briefly divert attention from Brexit – Forex News Preview

Posted on November 13, 2018 at 2:28 pm GMT

The UK will see the release of its latest inflation and retail sales data on Wednesday and Thursday respectively, both at 0930 GMT. While a strong set of prints could support the pound somewhat, the dominant force dictating the currency’s broader movements will likely be the Brexit saga, where both sides are reportedly working round the clock to reach a deal this month. Whether such a deal will pass through the UK Parliament, though, is a different story. UK inflation [..]

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Aussie to eye wages and Chinese data prior to jobs numbers – Forex News Preview

Posted on November 13, 2018 at 10:18 am GMT

Australia will publish wage growth data on Wednesday at 0:30 GMT ahead of employment figures the following day, while key indicators out of China due at 02:00 GMT will also be attracting attention for the Australian dollar. The aussie has been faring somewhat better during November after sagging at 32-month lows in October. An upbeat RBA and better-than-expected trade numbers lifted the local dollar during the past week. But whether it can maintain the positive momentum could depend on the [..]

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UK Jobs data to stay buoyant in September – Forex News Preview

Posted on November 12, 2018 at 4:39 pm GMT

While Brexit uncertainty dampens investment sentiment in Britain, business leaders continue to offer higher wages to attract new workers as skills shortages seem to restrict the availability of candidates. In August, the unemployment rate held at the lowest in 43 years and average earnings picked up steam for another month, with forecasts suggesting that September’s employment report will not tell a different story.    On Tuesday at 0930 GMT, the Office for National Statistics is expected to say that the unemployment rate stuck at 4.0% in the three [..]

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Japan’s economy forecast to contract in Q3; risk flows will drive yen – Forex News Preview

Posted on November 12, 2018 at 4:06 pm GMT

The Japanese economy contracted in Q3, data released on Tuesday at 2350 GMT are forecast to show, with most of the weakness being attributed to natural disasters. Overall, such GDP figures would endorse the BoJ’s reluctance to consider an exit from its gargantuan stimulus program, and hence are unlikely to impact the yen much, which may instead continue to respond more to shifts in risk sentiment.  Japan’s economy is forecast to have shrunk by 0.3% on a quarterly basis in [..]

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Week Ahead – After central banks and midterms, focus to move back to economic data

Posted on November 9, 2018 at 1:58 pm GMT

With central bank meetings and the US midterm elections out of the way, economic data will return to the forefront next week. Monthly stats on inflation, industrial output, employment and retail sales will dominate the calendar, while GDP numbers out of Japan will be watched for a possible contraction in Q3. Italian politics will also be on investors’ radar over the coming week as the country has until November 13 to submit a redraft of its budget or risk EU [..]

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UK preliminary GDP due as Brexit talks pick up momentum – Forex News Preview

Posted on November 8, 2018 at 4:04 pm GMT

The first estimate of UK GDP for Q3 will hit the markets on Friday, at 0830 GMT. Forecasts point to an acceleration in growth, which may help sterling to extend its latest gains. That said, economic data in general are likely to play second fiddle to any developments in the Brexit negotiations, with politics likely to overshadow economics in driving the pound over the coming weeks. The UK economy is anticipated to have grown by 0.6% on a quarterly basis [..]

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Fed to hold rates; unlikely to signal slower tightening after stocks sell-off, Trump attack – Forex News Preview

Posted on November 7, 2018 at 2:41 pm GMT

The US Federal Reserve will announce its latest monetary policy decision on Thursday at 19:00 GMT after concluding a two-day meeting. While the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is almost certain to keep its benchmark rate unchanged this month, investors will be watching for any tweaks to the statement language for clues about the future pace of rate hikes. In the absence of any unease by FOMC members about the recent volatility in stock markets, the US dollar could head [..]

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Chinese exports to start reflecting effect of tariffs? Aussie eyed too – Forex News Preview

Posted on November 7, 2018 at 10:13 am GMT

Chinese trade data for October are due on Thursday. The ongoing Sino-US trade dispute has rendered such releases somewhat more important, with the numbers likely to be scrutinized for any negative effects stemming from US tariffs. As is usually the case, the Aussie will also be attracting attention after the figures are made public due to the Australian economy’s heavy reliance on China; the currency is viewed as a liquid proxy for China-related “plays”. Analysts’ projections call for Chinese exports and [..]

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RBNZ set to keep rates unchanged but could it trim rate cut bets? – Forex News Preview

Posted on November 6, 2018 at 4:52 pm GMT

Following the RBA, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will be next to decide on monetary policy this week. As their Australian counterparts, RBNZ policymakers are widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged on Wednesday at 2000 GMT under a fragile global trade environment and downbeat local business sentiment. The kiwi however could start fluctuating prior to the rate statement as the quarterly employment report out of the country and the outcome of the US midterm elections are poised to affect investors’ buying interest for the currency. In the [..]

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