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BoE policy meeting: Don’t expect fireworks – Preview

Posted on March 19, 2024 at 11:02 am GMT

Bank of England to retain the same policy stance Q2 data could be more valuable for next decision making   What happened last time In its February policy meeting, the Bank of England (BoE) emulated the Federal Reserve by exploring rate cuts, ultimately deciding to maintain interest rates at 5.25%, their highest level in 16 years, with a 6-3 majority vote. Two policymakers voted for a rate hike but surprisingly, one policymaker raised his hand for a quarter-percentage point rate [..]

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Weekly Technical Outlook – EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF

Posted on March 19, 2024 at 9:58 am GMT

Major central bank meetings in the calendar this week Will the Fed meeting affect EURUSD? BoE decision will hold rates unchanged; GBPUSD retreats further SNB policy meeting may help USDCHF to rise Fed policy meeting –> EURUSD The focal point of this week appears to be the upcoming decision by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, since the anticipation of a more accommodative monetary policy in the world’s largest economy has been driving the remarkable surge in the stock market recently. Rate reduction expectations have fluctuated significantly this [..]

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Will Canada’s CPI data rescue the wounded loonie? – Preview

Posted on March 15, 2024 at 1:39 pm GMT

BoC sounds less dovish than expected Investors pencil in a first 25bps cut in July Canada’s CPI numbers could affect market expectations The data is scheduled for Tuesday at 12:30 GMT Will the BoC cut interest rates after the Fed? At its latest gathering on March 6, the Bank of Canada (BoC) decided to keep interest rates unchanged at 5% as expected, but the statement accompanying the decision and Governor Tiff Macklem himself signaled concerns about high underlying price pressures, [..]

Week Ahead – Five central banks: who will hike, who will not cut?

Posted on March 15, 2024 at 11:26 am GMT

Fed meets on Wednesday with focus on new dot plot Will the Bank of Japan finally end negative rates on Tuesday? BoE and RBA to stick with patience, SNB might be in more of a rush to cut Flash PMIs plus inflation data in the UK, Japan and Canada will also be crucial Fed decision: hoping for the best The upcoming week will undoubtedly be one of the busiest, not to mention the most important, of the year for investors [..]

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RBA could maintain a degree of hawkishness – Preview

Posted on March 15, 2024 at 8:39 am GMT

RBA will meet on Tuesday, cash rate is expected to be kept unchanged Market wants a dovish show, but RBA could remain somewhat hawkish Aussie could benefit against the US dollar from a hawkish gathering Decision to be announced at 03.30 GMT, press conference one hour later The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on Tuesday The RBA kicks off next week’s busy central bank meetings’ schedule with its Tuesday gathering. Contrary to both the Fed and ECB being on the [..]

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Fed decision: Will the new ‘dot plot’ boost the dollar? – Preview

Posted on March 14, 2024 at 3:22 pm GMT

Fed will announce its latest decision at 18:00 GMT Wednesday Almost certain to keep rates steady, so focus will fall on ‘dot plot’ Signals of fewer rate cuts this year could help the dollar recover   Solid economy pushes back Fed cuts The US economy continues to defy expectations. Economic growth is on track to hit 2.5% this quarter, juiced by enormous government spending and solid consumer demand.  Labor markets have shown some early signs of loosening lately, but remain [..]

Will the BoJ take interest rates out of negative territory? – Preview

Posted on March 13, 2024 at 3:51 pm GMT

Investors assign nearly 50% chance for a March BoJ hike Wage negotiations set to conclude with strong pay hikes Recession is avoided, inflation reaccelerates The BoJ meets on Tuesday at 02:30 GMT March hike speculation intensifies The yen staged a strong recovery last week following several reports suggesting that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may abolish its ultra-loose monetary policy as early as its upcoming policy meeting, which is scheduled for next week. After a couple of policymakers noted that [..]

Weekly Technical Outlook – USDJPY, GBPUSD, Nvidia

Posted on March 11, 2024 at 1:30 pm GMT

USD/JPY eyes 200-day SMA after dramatic downfall; US CPI next on the calendar GBP/USD resumes bullish outlook as UK jobs data loom Nvidia stock sinks the most in a while. Where next for the AI king?   US CPI inflation –> USD/JPY February saw a jobs growth of 275k in the US, surpassing analysts’ expectations. However, a downward revision in previous readings and a rise in the unemployment rate, along with slowing wages, fueled rate cut projections and led to more selling [..]

Will the US CPI data come to the dollar’s rescue? – Preview

Posted on March 8, 2024 at 1:38 pm GMT

Weak ISM PMIs and dovish Powell hurt the dollar Investors add to their June rate cut bets US CPI data the next test for the greenback The data is scheduled for Tuesday at 12:30 GMT After Powell’s testimony, investors see June cut a done deal There has been a notable repricing in market expectations with regards to the Fed’s future course of action since the start of the year. From penciling in around 160bps worth of rate cuts by December, [..]

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Pound eyes UK jobs and GDP data eyed after underwhelming budget – Preview

Posted on March 8, 2024 at 12:54 pm GMT

UK labour market in the spotlight as wage pressures remain elevated GDP data to also be watched as UK in technical recession Pound starts March on firmer footing, will the data support further gains? Employment report is due Tuesday and GDP figures on Wednesday at 07:00 GMT Stagnation vs recession The British economy along with Japan became the first of the major economies in the post-pandemic era to slip into a technical recession in the second half of 2023. Germany [..]

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