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Japanese exports to remain weak, inflation to inch higher in April – Forex News Preview

Posted on May 21, 2019 at 3:13 pm GMT

Following the unexpectedly strong Q1 GDP data out of Japan this week, the focus now turns to April trade numbers on Wednesday (Tuesday, 23:50 GMT) and inflation figures on Friday (Thursday, 23:30 GMT). Despite the impressive growth figures, worries remain about the outlook for Japan’s economy as the October sales tax hike nears and trade tensions escalate. Investors will therefore be watching carefully how the economy evolves over the next few months for signs the Bank of Japan would need [..]

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Fed minutes may give the dollar a helping hand – Forex News Preview

Posted on May 21, 2019 at 12:04 pm GMT

The minutes of the latest Fed meeting are due out at 18:00 GMT on Wednesday. Chairman Powell was less cautious than markets had anticipated back then, downplaying the prospect of rate cuts. The minutes could echo a similar message, particularly since this gathering took place before the latest escalation in trade tensions. If so, that may trigger a slight unwinding of market rate-cut bets, lifting the dollar.   Fed Chairman Powell ‘calmed’ investors back at the May meeting, indicating that [..]

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UK inflation to tick higher, retail sales to fall back but pound’s eye on European elections – Forex News Preview

Posted on May 21, 2019 at 6:48 am GMT

Inflation and retail sales numbers for April will be reported out of the United Kingdom this week, but with political uncertainty running high, the focal point for traders will likely be the outcome of the European Parliament elections. The CPI and retail sales data are due on Wednesday and Friday, respectively, at 08:30 GMT, while UK voters will be going to the polls on Thursday to take part in European elections that the UK was not supposed to participate in. [..]

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Week ahead – European elections & PMIs, Fed minutes, and much more

Posted on May 17, 2019 at 12:40 pm GMT

While lacking in central bank meetings, the coming week is still a busy one. A poor showing by the UK Conservatives in the European Parliament elections could make it even more likely that Theresa May is replaced with someone that wants to deliver Brexit ‘no matter what’, keeping the pound on the back foot. Meanwhile, preliminary Eurozone PMIs are unlikely to change the euro’s fortunes, while the Fed minutes may strike a ‘neutral’ tone, leading to a slight unwinding of [..]

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Japan’s economy likely contracted again in Q1; what next for the BoJ? – Forex News Preview

Posted on May 16, 2019 at 2:49 pm GMT

Japan will be post GDP growth figures for the first quarter on Monday (Sunday, 23:50 GMT). But with trade uncertainty still weighing heavily on export-dependent Japanese businesses, the data is unlikely to bring music to policymakers’ ears as the world’s third largest economy is expected to have contracted during the period.  After achieving non-interrupted growth for eight consecutive quarters in 2016-2017 – the longest stretch in nearly three decades, Japan’s economy hit a stumbling block in 2018 as trade tensions [..]

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Canadian CPI inflation follows upbeat employment report – Forex News Preview

Posted on May 14, 2019 at 3:41 pm GMT

After a solid employment report, the next important release for the Canadian currency is the inflation figures on Wednesday at 1230 GMT. While forecasts are positive, the Bank of Canada (BoC), like most of its major counterparts, is not expected to change its neutral stance on interest rates, not before the domestic economic picture brightens and global headwinds calm. In late-April, the BoC left interest rates unchanged and lowered its 2019 growth forecasts from 1.7% in January to 1.2%, with [..]

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Battered aussie looks to wage growth and jobs numbers – Forex News Preview

Posted on May 14, 2019 at 3:13 pm GMT

After taking a beating from an escalation in US-China trade tensions, the Australian dollar will now look to the nation’s wage growth data for Q1, due at 00:30 GMT on Wednesday. The all-important employment stats for April will follow on Thursday at 01:30 GMT; they may prove crucial in determining whether the RBA will cut rates soon. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held off from cutting interest rates the last time it met, but kept that option very much [..]

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Chinese industrial output to slow in April; could spark growth concerns as trade deal looks distant – Forex News Preview

Posted on May 14, 2019 at 2:49 pm GMT

China will publish the latest stats on industrial output, fixed-asset investment and retail sales on Wednesday at 2:00 GMT. The data will be watched to assess whether the rebound observed in March carried through to April amid worries the economy could lose momentum again as trade tensions flare up. With a trade deal hanging in the balance, a discouraging set of figures would only add to the negative market sentiment. Back in April, hopes that a rebound in growth is [..]

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US retail sales eyed as markets price in a 2019 Fed cut – Forex News Preview

Posted on May 14, 2019 at 12:40 pm GMT

The main event for the dollar this week will be the US retail sales for April, due on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT. Amidst an escalating trade conflict, markets have fully priced in a Fed rate cut by December, yet the dollar has barely retreated. This highlights that the greenback is still the ‘only game in town’, with a rebound in European growth needed to change that.   Market bets for a Fed rate cut in 2019 were pared back after [..]

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UK jobs data on tap as Brexit deadlock persists – Forex News Preview

Posted on May 13, 2019 at 2:35 pm GMT

The UK jobs report is due out on Tuesday (09:30 GMT) and forecasts point to a slowdown in wages, which may weigh on the pound a little. In the bigger picture, the risks around sterling also seem tilted to the downside, as any breakthrough in the cross-party Brexit talks seems unlikely, and May’s premiership is increasingly under threat.   The pound continues to be driven almost entirely by Brexit, with markets overlooking economic data. The logic behind this rests on [..]

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